We found our disciplined friend, who after greeting us asked: I have been hearing about the FIRE movement (short for Financial Independence Retire Early), is that possible?
The FIRE movement promotes the idea that, through discipline in saving and spending, you can accumulate enough assets to be able to stop working at an early age, say at 50 or even earlier.
The first thing worth mentioning is that most people seek to achieve financial independence at the time of retirement, that is, around the age of sixty-five. The novelty of the FIRE concept is to try to bring that date forward significantly.
In view of the above, it is worth asking whether an early retirement is a desire shared by most people, and it is not, given that many people find satisfaction in work beyond the economic. However, achieving financial independence does not necessarily imply an obligation to stop working; one could continue to work, but seeing it as a satisfactory activity and not as a means to an economic end. In fact, financial independence could be liberating, not only from the point of view of financial stress, but also from the point of view of being able to dedicate time to other activities, paid or unpaid, that are more attractive.
The key variables to consider before embarking on an effort of this nature would be the following: 1) establish a long-term target annual expenditure level, which is usually simplified by equating it to the (last[1]) annual gross income, and from there a target value for asset accumulation; 2) set a target date for achieving financial independence; 3) estimate the amount of annual savings using relatively conservative variables; 4) validate whether the level of savings required is compatible with a tolerable level of expenditure.
Regarding the latter, it is important to emphasize that – in the absence of an extraordinarily high income when compared to the cost of the current and projected lifestyle – financial independence could require sacrifices in current and future consumption, that is, opting for a very frugal lifestyle. For this reason, early financial independence may not be a feasible goal for everyone.
Sources related to the FIRE movement point to a target value for asset accumulation equal to 25 times the last gross income. This number comes from the 4% Rule[2] , which states that up to four percent of the value of the accumulated assets could be initially distributed, running a relatively low risk of depleting the assets.
However, this proposal assumes risks that may not be obvious. The first, and most relevant, has to do with the assumptions of the 4% Rule. This rule was evaluated using a divestment horizon of 30 years, this being a typical period – and at the time conservative – for the retirement stage, that is, from 65 to 95 years of age. A retirement before the age of sixty-five would imply that the divestment period could be longer than 30 years, which, at the very least, has not been empirically proven.
Another risk is the possibility of having to face extraordinary expenses in the future, being more common the need to obtain assistance to be able to conduct daily life, this for a prolonged period and after a disabling event. Although for most people spending during retirement tends to decrease in real terms, for another group with disabling conditions there is an upturn in spending during the last years of life.
A third risk would be the condition of the capital markets at the time of starting distributions. A market in crisis and with lower valuations at the beginning of the distribution period usually corresponds to a lower probability of not depleting assets.
For all the above, and other risks that we have not been able to mention, it is recommended to perform a complete and personalized financial planning exercise before embarking on this project, while using conservative estimates that would increase the probability of success.
Notice: The information provided herein is for educational purposes only. Portfolio Resources Group does not guarantee the accuracy of any tax recommendation, as we do not provide tax or legal advice. Consult a tax professional to ensure that the recommendations are appropriate for your particular situation.
[1] The target expense amount will change over time, the latter being the most relevant since it would cover the needs at that moment.
[2] The 4% Rule, in its empirical demonstration, assumes that assets will remain invested in a balanced mix of stocks and bonds in the U.S. stock market. The rule also assumes that the amount of the first year’s distribution, once adjusted for inflation, will be used in subsequent years.